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[英汉互译] Dangers of an Overheated China [复制链接]

老郭 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 14:20:30 |显示全部楼层
关键词: china , Dangers , Overheated
By TYLER COWEN
Published: November 28, 2009

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S recent trip to China reflects a symbiotic relationship at the heart of the global economy: China uses American spending power to enlarge its private sector, while America uses Chinese lending power to expand its public sector. Yet this arrangement may unravel in a dangerous way, and if it does, the most likely culprit will be Chinese economic overcapacity.

Several hundred million Chinese peasants have moved from the countryside to the cities over the last 30 years, in one of the largest, most rapid migrations in history.

To help make this work, the Chinese government has subsidized its exporters by pegging the renminbi at an unnaturally low rate to the dollar. This has supported relatively high-paying export jobs; additional subsidies have included direct credit allocation and preferential treatment for coastal enterprises.

These aren’t the recommended policies you would find in a basic economics text, but it’s hard to argue with success. Most important, it has given many more Chinese a stake in the future of their society.

Those same subsidies, however, have spurred excess capacity and created a dangerous political dynamic in which these investments have to be propped up at all cost.

China has been building factories and production capacity in virtually every sector of its economy, but it’s not clear that the latest round of investments will be profitable anytime soon. Automobiles, steel, semiconductors, cement, aluminum and real estate all show signs of too much capacity. In Shanghai, the central business district appears to have high vacancy rates, yet building continues.

Chinese planners now talk of the need to restrict investment in sectors that are overflowing with unsold products. The global market is no longer strong, and domestic demand was never enough in the first place.

Regional officials have an incentive to prop up local enterprises and production statistics, even if that means supporting projects or accounting practices that are not sustainable. For an individual business, the standard way to get more capital resources is to put forward a plan for growth. Because few sectors are mature, and growth has been so widespread, everyone can promise to be profitable in the future.

Over all, there is a lack of transparency. China’s statistics on its gross domestic product are based more on recorded production activity than on what is actually sold. Chinese fiscal and credit policies are geared toward jobs and political stability, and thus the authorities shy away from revealing which projects are most troubled or should be canceled.

Put all of this together and there is a very real possibility of trouble.

China has had a 30-year run of stellar economic growth. But it’s only human nature for such expansion to breed too much optimism, overextending an entire economy. Americans have found this out the hard way in their own financial crisis.

History has shown that no major economy has grown into maturity without bubbles, crises and possibly even civil strife or civil wars along the way. Is China exempt from this broader pattern?

The notions of excess capacity and malinvestment were common in business-cycle theory of the 19th and early 20th centuries, when growing Western economies had frequent crashes of this kind. Numerous writers, from the Rev. Thomas Malthus to the Austrian economist Friedrich A. von Hayek, warned about the overextension of unprofitable capital deployments and the pain from the inevitable crashes. These writers may well end up being a guide for understanding China today.

What will the consequences be for the United States if and when the Chinese economic miracle encounters a major stumble? A lot of Chinese business ventures will stop being profitable, and layoffs and unrest will most likely rise. The Chinese government may crack down further on dissent. The Chinese public may wonder whether its future lies with capitalism after all, and foreign investors in China will become more nervous.

In economic terms, the prices of Chinese exports will probably fall, as overextended businesses compete to justify their capital investments and recoup their losses. American businesses will find it harder to compete with Chinese companies, and there will be deflationary pressures in both countries. And even if the Chinese are selling more at lower prices, they may be taking in less money over all, so they may have less to lend to the United States government.

In any case, China may end up using more of its reserve funds to address domestic problems or placate domestic interest groups. The United States will face higher borrowing costs, and its fiscal position may very quickly become unsustainable.

That’s not so much a prediction as a very possible contingency, and we should be prepared for it. For now, we should avoid two big mistakes. The first would be to assume that just because borrowing costs are now low, we can postpone fiscal responsibility and keep running up the tab — with the aid of Chinese lending, of course. The history of financial crises shows that turning points can come swiftly and without much warning.

The second mistake would be to demand too many concessions from the Chinese. What we see in the numbers today are a growing China and a somewhat ailing America. Yet there’s a real chance that, soon enough, Chinese economic weakness will be a bigger problem than was Chinese economic strength.

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University.
老郭 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 14:27:09 |显示全部楼层
中美关系的现状是:美国拿中国的贷款发展公共事业,中国用美国的消费能力发展私营企业。如果有一天这个状况被打破了,那元凶一定是中国的过度生产能力。

这篇文章给美国人的告诫是:1. 不要因为现在借中国人的钱很便宜就不做好思想准备。情况说变就变。等中国有麻烦了,他们就会把钱主要用在国内。2. 不要向中国人要求太多的让步。虽然目前的状况是中国经济强劲、美国经济恶化,但非常有可能不久之后中国的经济就会出现大问题。
老郭 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 14:29:13 |显示全部楼层
产能过剩肯定是个大问题。这个祸根早晚要发作。得做好过苦日子的打算。
宇宙飞船 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 15:03:05 |显示全部楼层
时事术语太多,生词不少,俺看得很费劲,连蒙带猜也没有完全弄明白,先做个标记,有空就一天译一小段。
人生得意须尽欢,莫使金樽空对月,
天生我材必有用,千金散尽还复来。
宇宙飞船 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 18:23:21 |显示全部楼层
用翻译软件试了一下,时事术语竟然译得好象八九不离十了。
PRESIDENT OBAMA’S recent trip to China reflects a symbiotic relationship at the heart of the global economy: China uses American spending power to enlarge its private sector, while America uses Chinese lending power to expand its public sector. Yet this arrangement may unravel in a dangerous way, and if it does, the most likely culprit will be Chinese economic overcapacity.
奥巴马总统最近访问反映了中国在全球经济心脏的共生关系:中国利用美国的消费能力,以扩大其私营部门,而美国使用中国贷款的权力,扩大公共部门。然而,这种安排可能会显现出来了一个危险的方式,如果确实如此,最有可能的原因则是中国经济的产能过剩。 //完全计算机翻译的,未作任何修改。
人生得意须尽欢,莫使金樽空对月,
天生我材必有用,千金散尽还复来。
老郭 (离线)
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发表于 2009-11-29 18:39:29 |显示全部楼层
奥巴马总统最近的中国之行反映了全球经济心脏中的标志性关系:中国利用美国的支出能力来扩大其私有领域,而美国利用中国的放贷能力来扩展其公共领域。然而,这种安排也许会以一种危险的方式瓦解,并且,如果这种现象出现,最有可能的罪魁祸首将是中国经济的产能过剩。
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发表于 2009-12-2 12:11:15 |显示全部楼层
还是郭总牛。
www.dzweibo.com  电子微博网,微博式风格,IT电子人第一社交平台。www.dengtaiyang.com 个人博客。高速 PCB顶级设计群 282458668。
宇宙飞船 (离线)
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发表于 2009-12-2 17:11:20 |显示全部楼层
老郭的确是牛,熟知电子与时事的术语。
由于英语单词是意境单词,某些单词有十多种的意思,不同的语境就有不同的中文意思,因此英语翻译这个东东,隔行如隔山。
人生得意须尽欢,莫使金樽空对月,
天生我材必有用,千金散尽还复来。
terrysun (离线)
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发表于 2009-12-2 19:54:16 |显示全部楼层
再走日本走过的路
匿名  发表于 2010-1-11 11:16:52
2010年的北外同传试题!!!!

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